A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have historically dominated, winning 27 out of 28 series. The lone exception occurred in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs mounted a historic comeback to defeat the Detroit Red Wings.
Out of those 28 series, 20 concluded with a sweep. The Florida Panthers are on the cusp of sweeping the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games back in 1998.
Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to push the series to Game 5 by winning Game 4, history isn't on their side. Of the 28 teams that took a 3-0 lead, 25 clinched the series in no more than five games. Despite these overwhelming odds, the Oilers remain hopeful.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers are now 0-5-0 against the Panthers this season. Edmonton displayed some resilience in the third period on Thursday, picking up gritty goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod to reduce the Panthers' lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 is that the Oilers trailed 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice and in a must-win game—against a team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
Their downfall came in a disastrous 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida scored three goals. The Oilers had just tied the game at 1-1 with a breakaway goal by Warren Foegele when a turnover by goaltender Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to set up Vladimir Tarasenko for a goal that deflated the crowd at 9:12. Solid forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk forced a Darnell Nurse turnover, leading to Sam Bennett's seventh goal of the playoffs at 13:57. Aleksander Barkov capped off the scoring spree at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 chance that originated deep within the Oilers' attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
The Oilers have struggled with costly mistakes, and their top players have not delivered on the score sheet. While Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have found the net, the Oilers' five leading scorers—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—remain goalless in the series.
These five players also spearhead Edmonton's power play, which has been ineffective against Florida. The Oilers' power play entered the series with a success rate of over 37%, the best in the postseason, but it has yet to convert a single time against the Panthers' penalty kill, which is 10-for-10.
McDavid has managed to accumulate assists on three of the four Oilers' goals in the series. He is on pace to become just the second player since the 1967-68 season to register a point on at least half of his team's postseason goals, a feat only matched by Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. However, the other star players have yet to score a single point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
"Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," said Draisaitl.
"We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of," Draisaitl added.
"It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil," remarked goaltender Stuart Skinner.
"I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room," asserted Coach Kris Knoblauch.
"There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing," Knoblauch continued.
"After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen," noted Skinner.
"We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there," concluded Draisaitl.