At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins faced a disheartening defeat, squandering a three-run lead to ultimately fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. This loss marks a critical juncture for the Twins, who have struggled in recent contests, losing 18 of their last 27 games.
The turning point came when Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning. This moment encapsulated the team's recent woes, as they have consistently failed to secure victories in close games.
Twin's Waning Playoff Hopes
The struggles have significantly impacted the Twins' playoff standing. Having held a comfortable lead for the third AL wild-card spot, their advantage has now shrunk to just 1 1/2 games. As of September 5, FanGraphs placed their postseason odds at a robust 95.4%. However, recent performances have caused this figure to dwindle to 76.4%.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time," lamented pitcher Pablo López. "Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
Offensive Struggles
Offensively, the Twins have been lackluster, failing to score more than three runs in 12 of their last 27 games. This slump has been characterized by a .236 batting average, a .296 on-base percentage, and a .381 slugging percentage in this period. The struggles have been particularly pronounced when the bases are empty, where their .272 batting average makes them the fourth worst in the league.
"If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," said manager Rocco Baldelli. "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."
Pitching Woes
The Twins' pitching has been equally concerning. The bullpen, formerly a strength with a 3.84 ERA and a tenth-place ranking in win probability added (plus-3.41) over their first 123 games, has regressed markedly. In the recent 27-game span, the bullpen's ERA ballooned to 5.47, accompanied by a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added. Adding to the worry, the rest of the rotation posted a 6.07 ERA and averaged just 4.38 innings per start during the same period.
"It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," admitted Griffin Jax, reflecting on the mounting pressures and fatigue hitting the pitching staff.
Battling Fatigue and Adding Depth
The Twins have fought through a grueling schedule, playing 17 games in the last 18 days. To bolster their beleaguered roster, they recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, with a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, is seen as a versatile option to strengthen the bullpen.
"We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," noted Derek Falvey.
Postseason Aspirations
With the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners lurking just two games behind, every game becomes a pivotal battle for the Twins. However, they can find some solace in holding crucial tiebreakers over both teams. Notably, the Tigers have been on a tear, going 23-10 in their last 33 games, adding further pressure on the Twins.
Despite these setbacks, there are glimmers of hope. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown signs of life, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month. Additionally, the expected return of key player Max Kepler could potentially reinvigorate the squad.
The Twins have had the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses, and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions. These missed opportunities underline the fine margins that have typified their recent games.
As the regular season draws to a close, the Twins are in a precarious position. Success will hinge on their ability to rediscover their form both at the plate and on the mound. With the stakes higher than ever, they must navigate these final games with resilience and precision.